Are Boca Juniors really the favourites?

By Joel Richards, Sam Kelly and Sebastián García

If you are looking for a place where you can get predictions that are based on an exhaustive research and a thorough study of facts and figures, then we are sorry to inform you that you're not even close of getting that. 

The following is a compilation of hunches, wild guesses and the eventual dice being thrown in the air to help Joel, Sam and Seb decide on their picks. 

To make it more interesting, The Enganche can guarantee the three 'pundits' were not in the same room or trying to look over each other's shoulders to copy some of the answers.

Believe us, if one of them gets a few of the following picks right, you'll never hear the end of it! 

They're experts after all! 

Who will be the Apertura 09 Champions?

Sam Kelly: I don't like predicting just one winner, and in Argentina it's impossible to do so, but Boca Juniors are my favourites. They've strengthened formidably – I'm particularly looking forward to seeing whether Gary Medel can make the step up to the Argentine league in the fashion many have been expecting of him for the last twelve months or so – and won't have the Copa Libertadores distracting them this time round. Even if Juan Román Riquelme can't pick his game back up, they've got enough about them to be there or thereabouts, as long as they don't get distracted...

Sebastián García: Boca Juniors – The return of Alfio Basile to the club where he won every competition he took part in and the kind of signings Boca have secured, make them a strong candidate to push for the title. The fact that they need to win the Apertura to have a chance to play in the Copa Libertadores 2010 is another good reason to put your money on the blue and gold. Federico Insúa gives them another dimension. He is a player that can complement with Juan Román Riquelme to perfection. Look for Pablo Mouche to continue to help Martín Palermo in his quest to become Boca’s all-time leading scorer and for Chilean Gary Medel to be the perfect partner for Sebastián Battaglia in the middle of the park.

Joel Richards: Boca Juniors - There are three reasons why Boca will be champions. Firstly, they are the club who have improved their squad the most. They may have lost the talismanic Rodrigo Palacio and the midfield lynchpin Fabián Vargas, but in Pocho Insúa they have more options up front and in Gary Medel they have a real prospect. This could be Pablo Mouche’s last season in Argentina if he plays to his potential and attracts a bid from abroad, and if Riquelme rolls his socks down then there’ll be no stopping them. Secondly is the return of Coco Basile. Not just blessed with the deepest, gravelliest voice in the world, he has the experience to not let the media circus that travels with Boca get in the way of winning games. And that leads onto the third point – Boca need a good season to ensure they qualify for the Libertadores. Winning the Apertura would be a decent way to guarantee their place in the Latin American Champions League.

Who will finish the Apertura as runners-up?

SK: I can't see Vélez challenging again – they lacked real firepower last season and their defence surely won't hold out as well (or as luckily) as it did during the Clausura title win. Huracán have lost key players – notably Javier Pastore, Carlos Arano and seemingly Matías Defederico – and Lanús have finally bid farewell to Diego Valeri and José Sand. I think the Granate will be up there though, along with Estudiantes and San Lorenzo. And if Tigre are able to balance (or go out of) the Copa Sudamericana with their domestic work, they'll also be well placed.

SG: Vélez Sársfield – The defending champion got stronger. They kept the phenomenal Nicolás Otamendi in the centre of their defence and they added some real fire-power in Leandro Caruso (former Godoy Cruz striker) and Rolando Zárate (who used to play for Vélez in the past –was top-scorer in the Clausura 2004 with 13 goals- and now returns to the José Amalfitani). The core of the team that won the Clausura 2009 under Ricardo Gareca will come back to defend their title, but Boca may be a hurdle too high to jump.

JR: Lanús  - Luis Zubeldia is the stark opposite of Basile, the man he will push all the way for the title. Young, dashing and with fresh ideas, Zubeldía is not only the most promising young coach in Argentina but he also works at a club that has its house in order. They may have sold Pepe Sand but they still have Eduardo Salvio and Sebastián Blanco – two of the best young players in the league. Valeri is another important loss, but the Granate should still be fighting for the title this season, even if they do fall a point or two short.

Which team will be the surprise package?

SK: Racing - Ricardo Caruso Lombardi's brought something to them since he's been in charge, and I was even tempted to tip them for the title, but that surely would be too silly even for the Argentine league, this suddenly at least. The squad's in a state of flux, Franco Zuculini in particular will be a big loss, but it's going to be more Caruso's team now than it was when he took over – and look what he managed with the previous guy's players!

SG: Argentinos Juniors – Somehow an easy pick here. It wouldn’t take much from them to improve on what they did in the Clausura 2009 when they finished last in the standings. If I was an Argentinos Juniors supporter, I wouldn’t settle for the 19^th spot this time around. The arrival of Claudio Borghi as manager will give the team a breath of fresh air. Borghi will try to prove that what happened when he was the boss at Independiente was a fluke and to help him re-discover the winning touch he enjoyed in Chile when he won four league titles with Colo Colo, the former enganche will have some experienced players that will try to give Gabriel Hauche a better environment to exhibit his raw speed and talent. Federico Domínguez comes back to Argentina after a spell at Nacional in Uruguay, whilst Carlos Marinelli (Middlesbrough, 2000-2003) and former Arsenal de Sarandí, Santiago Raymonda, will give them some ball control in the middle. Chilean international goalkeeper, Nicolás Peric, promises safe hands. It will all depend on how Borghi manages to get his message across.

JR: Colón - Last season the spotlight fell, quite rightly, on Huracán for their results and football. It overshadowed the huge achievement of the modest side Colón who stuck with the leading pack till the very end. In Bichi Fuertes they have the grandfather of the league but he looks like he is in his late 20s rather than late 30s, while their coach Mohamed talks a good game. If Bichi and El Turco can repeat the magic again this season, it would be a real feat.

Biggest flop?

SK: Here's one I'm pretty confident about – it'll be River Plate. Ariel Ortega's return will be sentimental as ever and could be a stroke of genius, but will more likely be another deeply underwhelming experience. Cristian Fabbiani will feel more pressure than ever to score now Radamel Falcao García's said his goodbyes [contextual note: about five minutes after I drafted this sentence, Fabbiani scored a cracker in the Copa Sudamericana match against Lanús], and Matías Almeyda as cover for Oscar Ahumada?! The man's a legend, but he's also thirty-six years old. Mind you, I wonder if a low mid-table finish really counts as a flop for River these days...

SG: Independiente – It’s not because of what they have. Some players there can really cut it. It’s what they don’t have. This concept is easier to explain than what you may think. Two words will suffice: Rolfi Montenegro. The Clausura 2009 top goal-scorer will eat a taco or two between each long range goal he scores for América in Mexico while Independiente will be left missing him more than what they can realise. The return of Andrés Silvera, the talismanic goal-scorer manager Américo Gallego had at El Rojo when they won the Apertura 2002 (16 goals in 19 matches), could become a source of added pressure for a team that saw his fans protest by throwing syringes full of a red liquid that represented how their players lacked the ‘blood’ they needed to play for Independiente. If Silvera’s goals are not coming and the ‘number 10’ shirt, once wore by mythical enganche Ricardo Bochini and more recently by Sergio Kun Agüero, proves to be too big for Patricio Rodríguez, then it could spell disaster for the Red Devils.

JR: River Plate - Electioneering kicked off several months ago for the River Plate presidency. Candidates even have posters in Paraguay! There’s a lot of money at stake, the fans are angry… December’s elections will be huge for the millionaires. Not even the return of club legends Ortega and Almeyda will keep the focus on the pitch at the Monumental, there’s too much going on in the corridors. It may not be catastrophic, but it will be far from a vintage season for River.

Top-scorer:

SK: Eduardo Salvio of Lanús. Now José Sand is finally out of his way, this should be his campaign to step into the limelight. He started well in the Copa Sudamericana against River on Wednesday night, and I think he can step into Sand's boots effectively. If not, Carlos Luna of Tigre will be in with a great shout.

SG: Martín Palermo – It’s hard to look in another direction. River Plate fans will hate me, as I’m picking Boca for champions and Palermo for top-scorer. When you think of Boca doing well, you think of Palermo having a good tournament. Chasing glory and needing only a handful of goals to become the club’s top-scorer ever will only fueled the optimista del gol (goal optimistic), as once Carlos Bianchi described him, to keep punishing every goal-keeper that gets in his way. Riquelme, Insúa and Mouche will give El Loco plenty of assists for him to capitalise. My estimated Palermo goals for the Apertura 2009? 14.

JR: Leandro Caruso (Vélez) - I’m going out on a limb on this one because he’s not guaranteed a place in the Vélez first team, but if Gareca gives him a run in the side the club could even repeat last season’s title success. That said, I’m not that convinced… Either way, Caruso was simply brilliant at Godoy Cruz. He’s the complete package, not a player who stands out for any one trait apart from his consistency and scoring goals. As I said, if he’s in the team he’ll score. Lots.

Best player:

SK: If, as seems a possibility as I type this, Matías Defederico moves to an English club, he'll be loaned back to Huracán for the Clausura whilst a work permit application is filed. In this case, I think he'll want to go out with a bang and he'll be a tough act to beat. On the other hand – and just for the hell of saying something different – I've got a hunch about Leandro Romagnoli returning to San Lorenzo. The playmaker still has plenty left in his legs at 28, and after being pushed out at Sporting Clube de Portugal by Chilean Matías Fernández, he'll feel he's got something to prove. Just maybe...

SG: Juan Román Riquelme – Adored by his new manager, Alfio Basile, Riquelme will probably find the motivation he needs to take Boca to glory once again in this Apertura. Everything is in place of him to have a great tournament and provided he speaks with Maradona in good terms, make it to yet another World Cup with Argentina. That’s if he stays healthy (and it’s hard to find a bigger ‘if’ around here these days). If I thought River fans would hate me after picking Boca for champions and Palermo for top-scorer, I have just penciled my name in every page of their complaint book. I’m sorry, no harm intended.

JR:  Last season it was Huracán’s De Federico and Pastore who lit up the season with their creative partnership. This season it will be Lanús’ pair of Eduardo Salvio and Sebastián Blanco who get people talking over their mate.  Somehow the Granate have managed to hold on to both of them for another season, and they’ll have to make the most of them as both are destined for a move to a top European club pronto.  With a bit more top flight experience and playing a deeper role, I’m going for Sebastián Blanco to be the player of the season.

First manager to get the boot:

SK: Looking at the standings in the Promedio at the start of the new season, both Racing and Gimnasia La Plata are taking some serious upward momentum into the campaign. The sides either side of them in the relegation table, though, are the opposite: Arsenal had a drop in points from the 2007-08 season (51 points) to 2008-09 (46), whilst Central have just been plain dreadful two seasons running (41 and 40 points in the last two seasons). Whichever of those two cracks first will lose the first manager, is my guess – and with their opening matches against the champions of South America (Estudiantes) and of Argentina (Vélez), followed by Racing and then Tigre, I think that'll be Arsenal. Central start off with a couple of toughies too, but their 'winnable' matches arrive much sooner. Jorge Burruchaga (Arsenal) is my pick for the chop.

SG: Ariel Cuffaro Russo (Rosario Central) – Threatened by the promedio (they begin the Apertura with the lowest point-average in the entire league) and suffering from the sells of charismatic leader Kily Gonzalez (off to San Lorenzo), Iván Moreno y Fabbianesi (Estudiantes de La Plata) and José Vizcarra (Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata), Rosario Central will depend heavily on the first few results. They are at home to Racing (week 1) and River (week 3) with a visit to Tigre in the middle. Don’t be surprised if Cuffaro Russo doesn’t get alive out of those first three matches as he can suffer one of Argentine football’s less patient Board of directors.

JR: Américo Gallego (Independiente) - Independiente are a mess. They can’t get their stadium built, last season they had a squad of over 40 players for the first team… Tolo Gallego may have all the experience in the world but he simply doesn’t have the quality in the team. They struggled in the preseason, they have lost Rolfi Montenegro, and as one of the 5 ‘grandes’ a couple of bad draws and a defeat means just one thing - curtains for Américo.